Ponderances

On an evening where Diaby does an amazing recovery from his toe nail injury, it makes sense to reflect a little on what makes and breaks this Arsenal team. So this will be a more...how do you say..."reflective" post.

Ever since that season, 1997-8, when we won the double, and Le Boss' first full season, we've been a confidence team. Who could ever forget how we just went on that incredible roll in catching and then getting that one point ahead of Man U - running simply on incredible confidence.

The way we play, the way Le Boss has developed his philosophy, has to some extent been based too much on prevailing confidence levels within the team. The more confident they are, the better they pass; the better they pass, the more confident they get, and the more goals they score. But this confidence is clearly fragile - and the first time that fragility really got exposed was when we had that 49-game unbeaten run halted at Old Trafford. You could see it, the deflation - which was based on nothing but the total and inexplicable loss of confidence. We haven't recovered since. Fast forward to Birmingham, that draw and Eduardo's injury. It was a useful away draw, we were still comfortably ahead (by 6?), and there was absolutely no reason for panic. Mohawk Billy's behaviour sure made things worse. But that's what happened. That's what happens when you depend so much on "confidence" in dictating your style of play.

So my theory is this. All teams of course, run on confidence. But the way we play, places way too much importance on how confident the team actually is. Call it the Confidence Quotient (CQ). The higher the CQ, the more beautiful and unbeatable the team could be - but at the same time, the more susceptible and fragile they can be. On a scale of 1-10, I'd say our CQ is probably 10. Man U would probably 5, perfect balanced- where whether or not the team as a whole is confident, they have that knack of pulling off results. Chelski under Scolari was probably a 7 or 8. Pool? About the same. Of course, if you're a 1 on that scale, you'd be...er Fulham. Crappily boring generally all the time, but not that bad that you become a Derby County of 2007-8.

The higher the CQ, and the lower the current level of confidence, the greater the likelihood of passing the ball too death, the more likely you will see Eboue decide not to shoot or pass when he should, and the more passes you'll see within the opposing penalty box. In other words, what we've been seeing for long periods this season.

The higher the CQ, and the higher the current level of confidence, the greater the likelihood you'll see runs like the 49, the passing of the Unbeatables, the finishing of Henry, the vision of Pires and the goals from outside the penalty box.

What Le Boss needs to do is build a team with a lower CQ, less dependent on confidence, more able to grind out those victories from mediocre performances. Where does he start? In the centre of midfield and defence. It's a cliche, but the four right in the middle are the heart of Arsenal. Kolo and Mohawk Billy seem to be fine now - but weren't at the beginning of the season when we leaked stupid goals for fun. Now, the problem is the centre of midfield.

We've never replaced Petit, Vieira, Gilberto or Flamini. What we've got instead are Denilson and Song. Not on by far, I say. Not sure Ramsey will ever be the same, no matter how he develops. What he may be would be a Cesc alternative.

Coming back to the present then - we're all just waiting for that one day, one game, one pass, one goal - when everything changes. I thought it happened at Cardiff, when Eduardo returned. But of course, we know what happened. If we'd put away a few, and had beaten Roma by 4 or 5, that would have been the day, but it wasn't.

Would it be Fulham? Probably not, given both teams' recent fixation with 0-0 draws. So let's look forward to Roma away. Remember 5-1 at the San Siro? Real Madrid 1-0? That's exactly what we need for a good run in both the league and Champions League.

Or it may never come this season. With the injuries and disruptions.

Maybe that's why Le Boss signed an Arshavin. More than a solid defender, an Arshavin does have that ability to suddenly spark some confidence. Too late for a defender or midfielder anyway. My bet is that he'll do it this summer.

So till then, this is the last of my philosophising. Good night.